New Paper: The Ocean System Pathways (OSPs)

After a decade of advancing our understanding of how climate change impacts marine ecosystems, the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystems Model Intercomparison Project (FishMIP) is entering a new phase. In a recently published paper, the authors—including Hans Sloterdijk from CeOS—present a novel framework for projecting the future of marine fisheries in an increasingly uncertain world. 

At the heart of this effort is the development of Ocean System Pathways (OSPs), a new set of global scenarios that build on those used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). What sets the OSPs apart is their integration of socio-economic dimensions that are critical to fisheries and mariculture, such as differences in fishing practices, governance, and regional development.

The OSPs provide a structured way to explore how marine ecosystems and fisheries may evolve under varying climate and socio-economic conditions. They enable more consistent and realistic simulations across the diverse ecosystem models, supporting assessments of future risks and opportunities.

This new scenario framework will help address pressing global challenges including food security, climate justice, and equitable access to marine resources. By incorporating human dimensions into ecological modelling, the study marks a key step toward more holistic and policy-relevant marine science.

Read the full article: https://doi.org/10.1029/2024EF004851