Anchovy fishing in Peru: between export and food security

New Kiel study shows: Sustainable fisheries policy could combat malnutrition in Peru – despite climate change

Peru is the world's third-largest fishing nation and, with the Humboldt Current System, has one of the most productive marine ecosystems on Earth. Despite this wealth of high-quality protein and important micronutrients, millions of children in the country suffer from malnutrition, anemia, and growth disorders. One reason for this paradox lies in the structure of the Peruvian fishing industry: More than 90 percent of the anchovies caught are processed into fishmeal and fish oil and exported mainly to China and Europe – as feed for aquaculture and livestock farming. A third of the world's fishmeal and fish oil production comes from Peruvian anchovies alone. Only a fraction of what would be needed to close the nutritional gaps in the population remains in the country. A new study led by Kiel University (CAU), recently published in the journal Ecological Economics, now shows for the first time how a reorientation of fisheries policy could significantly improve national food security – even under the conditions of advancing climate change.

The study therefore addresses directly two of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 2 (Zero Hunger), SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 14 (Life Below Water) by exploring how how fisheries management can improve nutrition while ensuring the sustainable use of marine resources. 

New model combines economics, climate scenarios, and nutrition

To address this challenge, the researchers have developed a new approach to fisheries management building on the findings of the Humboldt Tipping project, in which German and Peruvian scientists investigated future climate scenarios and adaptation pathways in the Humboldt Current System and for anchovy fisheries. 

The research team led by Professor Marie-Catherine Riekhof, Dr. Biao Huang, and Dr. Renato Salvatteci – all from the Center for Ocean and Society (CeOS) of the priority research area Kiel Marine Science (KMS) at Kiel University – based their work on an empirically estimated four-species model for the Humboldt Current System off the Peruvian coast. The model captures the population dynamics of anchovy, bonito, hake, and mackerel, taking into account their ecological interactions and different scenarios of the effects of climate change. 

On this basis, a dynamic nutrient-based optimization model was developed that calculates the catch quantities necessary to supply the population with essential nutrients such as omega-3 fatty acids, protein, and iron without endangering fish stocks. For the first time, such a model does not focus solely on stock conservation or profit maximization, but concentrates on local nutrient supply, simulatating this through to the year 2100 under various climate scenarios.

"If anchovy quotas continue to be reserved entirely for export, catches of bonito, hake, and mackerel will not be sufficient to cover even a third of the nutritional needs of the Peruvian population," says lead author Dr. Biao Huang from the Institute of Agricultural Economics at Kiel University. In contrast, greater use of anchovies for direct human consumption could significantly improve national nutritional security. 

"Anchovies are at the center of a critical trade-off between export revenues and domestic food security. We want to identify ways out of this dilemma. To achieve this, the goal of food security must be integrated into climate-resilient fisheries management," adds Dr. Renato Salvatteci, coordinator of the Humboldt Tipping project at Kiel University. 

Conflicting goals of food security and export economy

The study makes the conflict of objectives between food security and the export economy tangible for the first time and identifies strategic options between nutritional, ecological, and economic goals. To cover just one-third of the national iron requirement from fisheries, for example around 2.93 million tons of anchovies would have to be reallocated for direct human consumption each year. However, such a reallocation would have significant economic consequences: the fishmeal and fish oil industry would suffer an estimated loss of revenue of around US$2.3 billion annually, according to calculations based on current market prices. In addition, climate change will further alter the development of fish stocks. With the increasing impact of climate change, adaptive and ecosystem-based fisheries management will therefore become increasingly important, the pressure to act grows with advancing climate change.

 Recommendations for policy makers

The authors, including Dr. Ricardo Oliveros-Ramos from the French research institute MARBEC (MARine Biodiversity, Exploitation and Conservation), supported by IRD, the University of Montpellier, IFREMER, and CNRS, therefore advocate a reorientation of Peruvian fisheries policy that places nutrient-based management goals on an equal footing with economic goals. 

They propose reserving a larger proportion of the anchovy quota for direct human consumption and, at the same time, ensuring that anchovies are socially accepted as food through market development, infrastructure measures, and targeted awareness campaigns. In Peru, anchovies are traditionally regarded as "fish for the poor" – an image that would need to be changed through active communication.

The study also has global relevance: Peru supplies around 30 percent of the fishmeal traded worldwide. Changes in Peruvian quota policy would also have a noticeable impact on global aquaculture and animal feed markets.

The study is part of the "Humboldt Tipping" project, a German-Peruvian research initiative funded by the German Federal Ministry of Research, Technology and Space (BMFTR). In this project, future scenarios for the Humboldt Upwelling System were developed together with local stakeholders and decision-makers. Further funding comes from the TestArtUp project of the CDRMare research mission of the German Alliance for Marine Research (DAM).

Original publication
Huang, B., Oliveros-Ramos, R., Riekhof, M.-C., Salvatteci, R. (2026): Fishery management for food and nutrition security in Peru under a changing climate. Ecological Economics, 244, 108941. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2026.108941

Press release from Kiel University